Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) officials advised the Department of Energy last week that they expected the cost to complete the National Ignition Facility (NIF) would be 20 - 30 percent higher than the original estimate of $1.2 billion and that a delay of 12 - 18 months was likely. The bad news was partially compensated for by predictions, based on R&D, that almost as much energy could be produced by 96 laser beams as was forecast for the full 192 beam system. LLNL has suggested to DOE that they be allowed to bring a 96 beam system into operation and begin scientific experiments on the original schedule and then upgrade to the full 192 beam system later. Although it is still expected that more than 96 beams will be required for fusion "ignition," officials say that all necessary physics data to confidently predict fusion target behaviour can be obtained with the smaller system. LLNL offered to accommodate any cost increases by readjusting priorities within their ongoing weapons R&D budget.

The cost increases came to light primarily in association with a review that LLNL commissioned early this year on how to complete the construction of the laser. The review inicated that the large building in which the laser would be assembled would have to meet a higher standard of cleanliness than had been planned for and that the experience to accomplish this task lay in the aerospace or semiconductor industry, rather than at the lab. Preparing for a competitive procurement would require more detailed engineering prior to procurement and entail a delay. The cost increase is due primarily to this change in plan.

In order to effectively implement completion of the project, LLNL has named Ed Moses, an experienced laser construction manager, to head the NIF project, to replace Jeff Paisner, who officials describe as having done an outstanding job on the initial phases of the project.

Although the problem has been apparent to LLNL since last April, LLNL had not completed its analysis and recovery plan until just recently. When told of the increase just last week, Energy Secretary Bill Richardson reportedly "hit the wall." At a dedication ceremony at LLNL for the NIF target chamber June 11, Richardson publicly described his pride in the fact that NIF was "on cost and on schedule," based on assurances he had received from project officials. He felt he should have been advised of the impending problem earlier. In a sharply worded press release, Richardson blamed laboratory officials for "late reporting." He said, "The problems with NIF are not technological -- the underlying science of the NIF remains sound. These are project management issues, and we will get ahead of these problems and turn them around with aggressive and tighter management action from this department."