Dr. N. Anne Davies, Associate Director for Fusion Energy Sciences, Office of Science, DOE, gave the keynote address at Fusion Power Associates annual meeting and symposium, "Cost-Effective Steps to Fusion Power, January 25-27, in Marina del Rey, CA. The complete talk is available HERE.
The Workshop was jointly sponsored with UCLA. Davies told the 65 attendees, "While the U.S. fusion program has been restructured from fusion energy development to innovation-driven research focused on fusion's scientific foundations, we must preserve our long-term energy vision. The restructuring process has created opportunities to explore cost-effective pathways to this vision, with steps that are more affordable, deliver an improved fusion product, and provide the greatest return on investment of federal research funds." She noted, "There are trends in the marketplace that could make it difficult for fusion to compete, such as abundant supplies of fossil fuels, coupled with the possibility of sequestering carbon; declining net costs of producing electricity; and movement toward more distributed generation units in relatively small sizes. However, for the longer term, there are several factors that make us optimistic about the prospects for fusion." Among these factors Davies noted that "One could imagine the emergence of large nuclear operating companies that have a long term view and, because of a high comfort level with nuclear technologies, might embrace fusion and recycle former nuclear fission sites into fusion facilities." She also said that "environmental issues, such as climate change, will persist and perhaps grow more threatening with continued fossil fuel burning." And she noted that "global population growth, desire for standard of living improvements, and resource depletion issues strongly favor fusion in the long term." She said that "The viability of fusion in the marketplace will depend on its cost, reliability, and development path requirements relative to competing new energy sources."
Davies announced that "Later this year, our systems studies effort will begin two tasks that address issues of the future marketplace for fusion, which will aid in our thinking about how to integrate fusion into the planning and vision of the larger energy research community." She said that "A strategic planning and forecasting task will assess the role of fusion in the long term vision of a sustainable global energy strategy. Strategic pathway analysis will consider a range of scenarios to deal with future social, economic, and environmental conditions. such as limits on greenhouse gases. This will determine how fusion can best fit, given its environmental and economic characteristics, as well as better define the goals and requirements for fusion. Initial efforts will focus on the role of large fusion power stations, macro-economic modeling of global energy markets, and outreach to other communities."
Davies also said that "A fusion applications task will explore the full range of fusion applications based on projected supply, demand, and cost factors. The potential of large output fusion devices for hydrogen production will be evaluated. Conceptual design studies of fusion neutron sources for both near term and non-electric applications and fusion test facilities will define costs, benefits, and risks associated with development paths that might attract new clients for fusion."
Davies said that "This attention to a wider range of fusion applications and test facilities highlights the importance of maintaining a portfolio of confinement concepts for both near and long term energy applications." Regarding "nearer term applications" for fusion research, Davies said, "While magnetic fusion has not pressed hard to find a possible nearer term customer for fusion-grade plasmas, it is time now to fully explore all possibilities and determine if there is potential to expand fusion's customer base and build a stronger underpinning of support for the program."
Davies also noted "several other activities in 1999 that will provide input to or have bearing on these reviews and planning efforts." Specifically she mentioned that "Members of the magnetic and inertial fusion communities are preparing a draft roadmap that includes both magnetic and inertial fusion energy approaches in a unified framework," and also that a "Next Step Options (NSO) activity will investigate opportunities for advancing the scientific understanding of fusion energy, with emphasis on plasma behavior at high energy gain and for long duration." She also mentioned that "In response to the call for a new international agreement on fusion science by the Secretary of Energy in September 1998, the US has proposed an annual forum for leaders of the four major (international)fusion programs." In addition, she noted that a panel of the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) "is conducting a study of international cooperation in energy R&D and deployment."
Davies said that the collective outputs of these activities will have a "strong bearing" on the way in which the US fusion program addresses the basic issues of the question "How do we get from here to there."