October 2, 1997
FPN97-25 Fusion Program Notes
Pathways to Fusion Power
Fusion Power Associates Symposium
Snowmass Colorado, August 27-29, 1997
Top Level Summary
Prepared by Stephen O. Dean,
in collaboration with the symposium speakers
The symposium covered seven topics. The following is a top level summary
of thoughts expressed on these topics. Though obviously not all of the 65
participants would agree on everything, what follows attempts to express
what appeared to be a broad consensus.
TOPIC 1: What is our view of the future marketplace?
The marketplace for electric power in the U. S. is expected to become
increasingly competitive in the near- and mid- term. Current conceptual
designs of fusion power plants project cost of electricity higher than
today's sources and hence could not compete today on economic grounds. In
the long-term, projections are difficult. Factors like global warming or
regional availability of fuels favor technologies like fusion. Although
the opportunity for fusion to compete commercially is decades into the
future, it is not too early for the fusion community to seek closer ties
with its future customers. At a minimum, their interest is required for
political support. However, their technical experience would also be
valuable for guiding our R&D program. It is also important to note that
market forces vary around the world and, in many other countries, the power
industry is more government-controlled than the future projections for the
U. S. A favorable trend in the U. S. is the emergence of large nuclear
power plant operating companies. These companies may be more receptive to
new nuclear technologies like fusion.
TOPIC 2: Will fusion enter the marketplace as an Electric Power Producer
or as a supplier of some other needed product?
There are a range of possible commercial and military applications for both
fusion itself and for technologies developed for fusion. Some of these
might provide early demonstrations of the utility of fusion and/or fusion
technologies. It is important to seek out such applications in the near-
and mid- term, in view of the economics of the electric power market. Here
again, it is important that there be early dialogue with potential
customers, for the reasons given above for the electric power market.
TOPIC 3: Can other fuel cycles compete with the D-T fuel cycle?
Material presented at the symposium indicate that, on a physics basis, it
will be difficult for other fuel cycles to compete with the D-T cycle.
And, as indicated above, even the D-T cycle will have difficulty competing
with other technologies on economic grounds. Nevertheless, advanced fuels
may possess engineering, safety and/or environmental advantages and hence
merit an active ongoing research effort, emphasizing concepts that might be
uniquely matched to such cycles.
TOPIC 4: The Tokamak Path to Commercial Fusion
The development of the tokamak science and technology base has been a great
success story and will benefit the evolution of any magnetic concept.
Improvements in the conventional tokamak as well as more significant
departures, such as the Spherical Torus, may well lead to commercial
success. ITER represents an opportunity to leverage off the mainstream of
the world fusion effort in both fusion science and fusion technology. If
ITER proceeds into construction, the U. S. should attempt to be a
significant participant.
TOPIC 5: Inertial Pathways to Commercial Fusion
The inertial fusion community has done outstanding science and technology
work in the pursuit of its concepts and has provided a potential path to
commercialization. However, additional work, not now pursued under weapons
sponsorship, is required for commercial application. In view of the
opportunity for leverage provided by the construction of the National
Ignition Facility, the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences should actively
develop the energy-related technologies for inertial fusion. All should
strive to break down the barriers that separate the fusion community into
inertial and magnetic "camps."
TOPIC 6: Promising (non-tokamak magnetic) Pathways to Commercial Fusion
There are a large number of concepts and variations on concepts and,
despite FEAC and FESAC reviews of overall alternate concept policy, no
agreed upon procedure is yet in place for setting priorities among them.
Such a procedure should be established. Some alternates benefit from the
extensive tokamak database more than others and hence progress on these
concepts can be expedited. On the other hand, risk is reduced if some
concepts explored are "orthogonal" to the toroidal magnetic concepts.
Although the DOE Office of Fusion Energy Sciences has announced plans to
increase the level of effort on alternates, only modest increases have
materialized thus far and the process for determining a new program balance
is unclear. Though many concepts can apparently be explored at modest
levels initially, the budgetary impact in future years of initiating a
large number of concepts does not appear to have been thought through.
TOPIC 7: Do fusion power plants really require Low Activation Materials?
Materials are important to the commercial success of many technologies,
especially nuclear technologies. Fusion will require advanced materials
that function in a unique environment. A materials development program is
thus essential for fusion. "Low activation" is a desirable attribute for
fusion materials, but other attributes may be more important for both
technical feasibility and economics. Therefore, a comprehensive program,
which takes into account system tradeoffs, is required.
SYMPOSIUM SPEAKERS:
Mohamed Abdou
J. W. Anderson
David Baldwin
Roger Bangerter
Everett Bloom
Ed Cheng
Don Dautovich
John Davis
John DeLooper
Rob Goldston
Rich Hawryluk
Bill Hogan
Rush Holt
Jerry Kulcinski
Grant Logan
Kathy McCarthy
Dale Meade
Tom Mehlhorn
Georg Miley
Ron Miller
Farrokh Najmabadi
Bill Nevins
Steve Payne
Martin Peng
John Perkins
Miklos Porkolab
John Santarius
John Sethian
John Sheffield
Dice Siemon
Ron Stambaugh
Keith Thomassen
Les Waganer
Clement Wong
For more information, contact: Stephen O. Dean