January 9, 1997
A New Year's Resolution
Energy is fundamental to the ability of society to function. It plays a critical role in our standard of living and in our security. It is entwined with world economic growth, environmental quality, and geopolitics. Forecasts estimate a doubling to tripling of energy demand by the middle of the next century. While fossil fuels could arguably supply such growth in demand for a hundred years or more, it is widely believed that alternatives to fossil fuels are urgently needed to protect the global environment. Technological advances emerging out of energy research and development will be critical to meeting future energy needs in an environmentally friendly manner, reducing stress on supply and consumption, diversifying risk, and avoiding or at least minimizing any future energy crisis.
In 1990, of the total primary energy supplied to civilization, nearly 30% was used to generate electricity and about 70% was used for non-electric applications such as transportation. The percentage associated with electricity has been growing steadily, however, and should electric vehicles begin to displace gasoline-powered vehicles in the future, the percentages could rapidly reverse. The non-fossil fuel alternatives available to society are fusion, fission and various forms of so-called "renewables," such as hydro, solar, and wind. Common sense dictates that all of these options be developed since, in the words of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), "The greater the number of these (options) that can be brought to the point of commercialization, the greater will be the chance that overall energy needs can be met without encountering excessive costs from, or unmanageable burdens upon, any one source." The PCAST states, "The value of fusion must be understood in this context. The possible costs of needing fusion at midcentury and beyond, but not having it, are very high."
The United States currently imports more than 45% of the oil it consumes annually at a direct cost of about $50 billion. Americans currently spend over $400 billion a year for gasoline and electricity, whereas the U.S. Department of Energy currently spends less than $1 billion a year on energy research and development . Also, the United States currently has approximately 700 Gigawatts of installed electrical capacity, essentially all of which must be replaced by the middle of the next century due to aging. The cost of replacing this capacity is approximately a trillion dollars. So-called "Third World Developing Countries," which today use 35% of world energy, are projected in 50 years to require 60% of total world energy consumption that is 2-3 times higher than today.
Fusion promises many benefits, including a universally available, essentially inexhaustible, efficient fuel resource; an energy source with attractive safety and environmental characteristics; and spinoff technologies for a variety of applications. While the cost of fusion development is viewed by many to be high, it is an extremely small fraction of currrent or projected U. S. expenditures for electricity and represents a prudent investment and insurance policy for an uncertain future.
The current level of U.S. federal investment in fusion and other alternatives to fossil fuels is woefully inadequate and needs to be seriously reexamined.
Some useful references and resources:
For more information, contact: Stephen O. Dean