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FPN14-13

US ITER Cost Estimates Revealed

April 9, 2014

For years, DOE has refused to release data on the changing estimates of total costs and cost profiles for the US contribution to ITER. At the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) meeting on April 9, Ned Sauthoff, head of the US ITER Project Office provided 5 historical profiles.

An April 2011 estimate assumed an "optimum" desired profile for meeting the ITER Organization's 2019 1st Plasma date. It required a rapid growth in US funding from the FY2011 budget of $80M to $350M. The total US ITER Project cost estimate was $2.5B.

When it became clear that the ITER 1st plasma date would slip to 2020, another profile, dated November 2011, was prepared that required growth to only $300M. In this case, some costs for equipment not needed for 1st plasma was assumed postponed beyond 2020. The total US ITER Project Cost estimate for this case was $2.6B.

It soon became clear that the funding increases required to meet either of the above cases would not be forthcoming (Congress provided $105M in FY 2012 and $150M in FY2013). A new profile was prepared in September 2012 using an OMB-mandated maximum $225M flat outyear profile (still in effect). Although it was becoming clear that the ITER schedule was slipping further, the ITER Council did not officially change the 2020 1st plasma goal. The total US ITER Project cost estimate for this case was $3.1B.

Though the ITER Council has still not officially slipped the ITER 1st plasma date of 2020, those working on the project began to use a "more realistic" 1st plasma date of 2023. A profile based on this assumption and the flat $225M maximum per year funding showed a total US ITER Project cost estimate of $3.9B.

A final profile presented, based on the President's proposed FY2015 budget request for only $150M (followed by an assumed rise to $225M in FY2016), shows a slip of 1st plasma to 2024/25. Sauthoff's graph shows maintaining a $3.9B total cost in this case, though he said it would likely increase.

A copy of the graph presented by Sauthoff is available from Fusion Power Associates on request. Contact: fusionpwrassoc@aol.com