FPN02-77

US Committee Finds ITER Cost Estimate "Credible"

December 6, 2002

A committee formed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to review and assess the cost estimates for the construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) has "concluded that the ITER Team has prepared a complete cost estimate that is based on sound management and engineering principles, and is credible as a basis for establishing relative contributions by the Parties to the construction of ITER." The review committee was appointed by DOE Office of Science director Dr. Raymond Orbach as part of the ongoing U.S. government's process for deciding whether to rejoin the project from which the U.S. withdrew by Congressional mandate in 1998.

The committee said the ITER cost estimate, which they estimated at $5 billion (constant 2002 dollars), "is supported by the design and R&D results that are unusually mature for a science project facing the decision to fund construction." They recommended that "in the event the U.S. decides to join the current negotiations (to construct), it should prepare, as soon as possible, its own cost estimate for a set of procurement packages for components the U.S. would be interested in providing."

The committee said the proposed 10-year construction schedule "seems generally reasonable." However, they cautioned, "there is an inevitable uncertainty in estimating the duration of the government approval process that is a prerequisite to starting the construction of the project."

The committee also was briefed on the proposed management structure currently being discussed by the negotiators. The committee commented "Since management will be the key to the ultimate success of the project, the Committee believes that for a complex international project such as ITER, a strong line-management approach will be in the best interest of the Parties."

U.S. government officials, speaking at Fusion Power Associates annual meeting Dec 3 in Washington, said that the U.S is expected to make a decision on whether to join the project before the end of the year, though possibly the decision might not be formally announce until "early next year." They said the Administration is currently favorably inclined toward ITER and that the main issue is "budget." The U.S. fusion budget has been essentially flat for several years and fusion community spokespersons have told the DOE that substantial increases in funding would be required to participate in ITER.

The full committee report is posted at http://fire.pppl.gov