He begins, "The United States and the world face a daunting array of energy-related challenges. We must work out how to provide, reliably and affordably, the supplies of fuel and electricity needed to sustain and build economic prosperity. We must limit the financial drain, vulnerability to supply-price shocks, and risk of armed conflict that result from overdependence on foreign oil. We must reduce the environmental damage done by technologies of energy supply, ranging from local and regional air pollution to the disruption of global climate. We must minimize the accident and proliferation dangers associated with nuclear energy."

Holdren points out that oil imports have "crept up from their 1985 low of 29 percent of U.S. oil consumption to 57 percent in 2000." He notes, "Early indications are that the new administration plans to make drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) the centerpiece of its energy policy." He says, "That would be a mistake." Holdren states, "The contribution of the ANWR to domestic oil supplies would, at best, be slow to start, modest at its peak, and strictly temporary, providing limited leverage against the oil-import part of our energy problems and almost no leverage at all against the other parts." He says, "Whether the ANWR belongs in the national energy portfolio at all -- given the ratio of its possible benefits to its costs and risks -- is problematic. It certainly should not be the centerpiece." He says that "ANWR could ultimately provide the equivalent of 7 months to 2 years of current U.S. oil supply, or 1-4 years of current imports."

Holdren says that although oil imports have risen to more than one percent of GDP, the economic impact is "still not as great today as it was 20 years ago." He says, "Dependence on imported oil can be reduced by increasing domestic oil production or by reducing oil use," but says that "analysis of recent history and future prospects indicates that much larger gains will come from reducing consumption through efficiency increases and substitution than from increasing domestic production."

He opines that "Although the largest and most cost-effective leverage in the decades immediately ahead resides in increasing energy efficiency, there is also considerable potential in expanding energy supplies from sources other than oil." He says, "The sources with the largest short-term and medium-term potential to directly displace oil in the U.S. energy mix are natural gas and biofuels," but adds that, for electricity, "We should focus on developing technologies to displace the use of natural gas to produce electricity so that this natural gas could then be used to displace oil in the industrial, residential and transportation sectors."

Holdren recommends that the first step in a new energy policy ought to be "to boost federal spending for energy R&D and for international cooperation on energy technology innovation to the levels recommended in the 1997 and 1999 PCAST reports." He notes that the gap could be closed by taking "half a cent per gallon from the federal gasoline tax." In addition, he recommends putting in place "an array of price and nonprice incentives and other policies that will encourage the deployment of energy efficiency and advanced energy supply technologies in proportion to their public benefits."

With respect to fusion, he notes, "PCAST also recommended an increase in the funding for R&D on fusion energy, which, although it remains far from commercialization today, could conceivably make a large contribution to electricity generation in the second half of the 21st century." Holdren was one of the 190 signatories to the statement on Fusion and Energy Policy, recently sent to Vice President Dick Cheney, in his capacity as chair of the White House National Energy Policy Development Group (FPN01-28).

Holdren's complete article is posted at http://fire.pppl.gov